5.4 Changing the world for better

How can we use futures thinking for change? What should we learn to be change agents?

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In this sub-chapter, we talk about how to create the future. While the future cannot be precisely predicted, it is worth trying to anticipate it. There isn’t just one right future. There are a range of possible futures and we can actively shape the future by the decisions and actions we take today.

Futures thinking is a creative and exploratory process that sees many possible trajectories and acknowledges uncertainty as a key condition. Futures thinking, also known as foresight, is a discipline and profession in its own right. Experts create useful theories and frameworks for making wiser actions through understanding the long-term issues and challenges shaping the future development of a certain issue or area (Dator, 2019, Voros, 2003). We’ll now turn our attention towards some essential insights coming from the work of such futurists.

Future thinking scale

From your grandchildren to global issues

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So, when you hear the word ‘future’, what comes to your mind?

Futures thinking is centered around a future theme of the current reality that has meaning to you. You cannot imagine a future about nothing. Differently said, future thinking is a driver of engagement. Future thinking about your professional life in ten years from now. Future thinking about your grandchildren’s living environment and livelihood opportunities. Future thinking about the progress in society in the next fifty years. Future thinking about the planet Earth’s carrying capacity and vitality in the next hundreds of years.

You see the point. There are different foci and time horizons – from the micro level of our individual experiences to the macro level of our societal experiences in a specific place and finally to the grand level of human civilization – based on which we can exercise our ability to envision and forecast alternative scenarios in the next 10 years, 50 years, 1000 years, and so on.

One way to think about future and create scenarios about it is to look at the matter from the perspective of five different kind of futures by Voros (2003): potential, possible, plausible, probable, and preferable.

Future envisioning

Three step method

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So, when you hear the word ‘future’, what comes to your mind?

Futures thinking is centered around a future theme of the current reality that has meaning to you. You cannot imagine a future about nothing. Differently said, future thinking is a driver of engagement. Future thinking about your professional life in ten years from now. Future thinking about your grandchildren’s living environment and livelihood opportunities. Future thinking about the progress in society in the next fifty years. Future thinking about the planet Earth’s carrying capacity and vitality in the next hundreds of years.

You see the point. There are different foci and time horizons – from the micro level of our individual experiences to the macro level of our societal experiences in a specific place and finally to the grand level of human civilization – based on which we can exercise our ability to envision and forecast alternative scenarios in the next 10 years, 50 years, 1000 years, and so on.

One way to think about future and create scenarios about it is to look at the matter from the perspective of five different kind of futures by Voros (2003): potential, possible, plausible, probable, and preferable.

Potential futures are the most comprehensive of all the alternative scenarios, referring to outcomes beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, from the most dramatic to the most idealistic. Possible futures refer to scenarios that result from assumptions on the facts and principles that govern a specific domain. Plausible futures are about the events that could happen considering the existing norms of social interactions. Probable futures are about scenarios built on possible shifts in the dominant and less dominant trends in society. And

the fifth and last, the preferable futures are the versions of futures we would like to see, in an ideal world.

The input stage could be called research. It refers to scanning the environment where the topic of interest takes place and collecting information about random events, trends, key actors and their actions, and key relationships between key actors. The data is then used as a basis for forming key questions that open the mind to future visions.

Foresight stage is formed of three steps: analysis, interpretation, and prospection.

For analysis there are different methodological tools, such as the futures wheel. Developed by futurist Jerome Glenn in the 1970s, the futures wheel is used for exploring and mapping out the potential direct and indirect consequences of a specific trend or event (Glenn, 2009). Other methodologie include the cross-impact matrix and trend analysis,

which have a similar aim of analysing and understanding how different actors and events might interact with and influence each other. Useful methods are presented, for example, on the website of United Nations innovation lab UN Global Pulse.

Next comes the interpretation of the identified consequences and connections of the events. What is happening beyond the surface of the identified patterns? The aim is to understand what the causes of the observed trends and events might be.

At the prospection stage, a future scenario is generated, based on the future type you are interested in – potential, possible, plausible, probable, or preferable.

Last comes the output stage, where the scenarios generated are taken into consideration in making strategic decisions and taking actions towards actually creating the future.

All in all, these three stages are meant to open one’s mind to the alternative visions related to the phenomenon of interest, which were not even considered at the outset. Also, this framework can increase awareness of drivers of change for enabling a preferred future.

High-tech and high spirit transformation

What is the role of arts?

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Societal transformation envisions a future where current behaviours, beliefs, norms, and organizational forms end, giving way to new ones. These new forms are distinct from a mere return to older or traditional models. In general, futures studies discussed two primary categories of societal transformation: ‘high-tech’, which focuses on technological breakthroughs, and ‘high spirit’, which centers on consciousness transformations (Voros, 2017).

The role of technology in societal transformation is enormous, and often unplanned and unforeseen. Automobile, for example, lead to increased suburbanization to the detriment of many city centers, and led to the malls. Digital revolution has fundamentally transformed the whole world, and it is still continuing. It is important to understand, that the outcomes of new technology are not a law of nature, but also dependent on the paradigms of thinking, values, and beliefs, of the societies where they land. By transforming these, we can also influence the effects of new technology.

Arts and creative practices can stimulate the high spirit transformation. Creative practices can be performed by both professionals and volunteers who utilize their personal and collective craft skills and creativity to innovate or reinterpret aspects of the world. This can be done using many creative methods from writing, art, and theatre to design and participatory community development.

Creative practices stimulate transformation by creating emotional experiences that could ‘change us by giving a foretaste of what radical respect for life might be like’ (Light 2023, p. 27). They can support individuals develop new meanings about transformational futures via embodiment, learning and imagining.

Embodiment refers to the the use of the body to experience and comprehend the world. The embodiment enables access to diverse ways of knowing, facilitating a deeper connection with various perspectives often overlooked in a rational-centric approach. Also, embodiment connects to metaphors and meaning, allowing for a physical engagement with ideas and theories. For example, the organizers of the creative practice Invocation for Hope, invited people into a burnt but secretly alive indoor woodland. This immersion has evoked many reflections on new embodied experiences among visitors who described mixed feelings of desolation and aliveness (Superflux 2021).

Embodiment fosters changes in emotional energy and social interactions, which can lead to new values and social relationships, essential for transformations.

Learning has a profound impact when it involves changes in basic assumptions, worldviews, and knowledge. Creative practices play a significant role in facilitating this. One need only to think of influential movies, books or songs.

Individual learning requires deep evaluation and reflection, which can lead to personal transformations. Social learning is also essential when individuals collectively gain insights through communication, observation, and problem-solving. This relational and collective learning also fosters a shared critical consciousness that recognizes societal issues as structural and requiring change. Ultimately, both individual and collective learning processes are crucial for shaping actions toward sustainability transformations.

Imagining refers to imagined futures, presents and pasts, Art and creative practices expose the audiences to new ways of being or doing that can expand people’s imaginative capacities. The frequent communication of visions and narratives of the future can gain widespread attraction, garnering support and resources. These visions may evolve into “imaginaries”, which are images of the future that are backed by different organizations and repeatedly presented to the public. Such imaginaries open up new possibilities for change.

As imaginaries gain institutional support and public recognition, they become deeply intertwined with institutional change, shifts in public perception, and systemic transformations.

Watch below how the artist, designer and professor of practise in contemporary design at Aalto, Julia Lohmann, works and thinks.

Three horizons transformation method

Negotiating the future

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There is a tension between making incremental changes, i.e. improving what is working today, and the need for radical transformation. The framework called ‘Three Horizons’, developed by futurist Bill Sharpe and his colleagues, is a helpful tool to explore future-oriented innovation and to make radical and wise change actually happen.

In any discussion about changing the future, there are usually three perspectives or voices that emerge. These three voices often talk past each other, but each is needed to create meaningful change.

Horizon 1

The dominant way things are done today that show signs of strain and lack of fit to the future.

Horizon 3

Our visions of how we want things to be radically different in the future.

Horizon 2

The innovations we can create right now that will help realise the desired future.

The framework evaluates change by bringing these three ‘horizons’, or voices, together in a way that recognizes the value of each perspective and that gives different stakeholders a shared language for exploring: Where are we right now? Where do we want to be in the future? How to get there?

In the wonderful video below, Kate Raworth, the economist behind the well-known concept of a sustainable Doughnut Economics, explains how the three horizons model can be used. Watch the video. If the video doesn’t show, you can watch it here.

Planetary work

What is the role of humans on the planet?

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An important viewpoint to changing the world comes from planetary thinking. Due to the impact of increasingly consumerist societies, particularly in the Global North, the physically finite Earth is undergoing profound changes and potentially irreversible influence on its systems, environment, processes and biodiversity (Ripple et al. 2024). We live “in the midst of a planetary emergency of our own making” (Dixson-Declève et al. 2022).

How can we as creators and decision-makers change the direction of development that seems to be inevitable? The human-induced climate change, the depletion of natural resources and declining biodiversity call for radical creativity from the worldview that sees no separation between the planet and its citizens.

Planetary imagination and inclusion can be stimulated by broadening our perception spatially, temporally and ethically. We are not just residents of a city or a nation. We live in a finite planet that is shared with all the people and other life forms. Also, there is a chain of connections between generations: those who lived before us laid the foundations for our well-being, and our choices influence the lives of those born later. When our ‘sphere of care’ and ‘sense of belonging’ broadens towards planetary responsibility, new questions open up that help create new ways to thrive on our unique planet. For example, what might a desirable future look like from the perspective of marine corals, Pacific islanders or an unborn child? (Salonen et al. 2023; Salonen et al. 2024)

Effective change work connects human and ‘more-than-human’ realities. A holistic worldview is typical for Indigenous traditions which can provide enriching perspectives for learning and innovation. For example, Indigenous wisdom argues that ‘there is only one water’, as different forms of water can be returned to the same idea of water. Connections between human and ‘more-than-human’ realities can be identified in real-life everyday acts: When I breathe, I breathe in the oxygen that plants produce. When I eat, I consume nature into a part of myself, becoming a part of the living and non-living world – its plants, water, light and soil. (Salonen et al. 2024.)

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Furtherfield. 2022. The Treaty of Finsbury Park 2025. https://creatures-eu.org/productions/treaty/ 

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